Three perspectives on where AI could go next. Read them in this order, compare their assumptions and make up your own mind.
1. AI 2027
Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland & Romeo Dean
A detailed scenario of how AI could develop rapidly, with two possible endings.
2. Why I don’t think AGI is right around the corner
Dwarkesh Patel
The case for longer timelines, focused on what AI still needs to learn on the job.
Read Why I don’t think AGI is right around the corner
3. Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead
Leopold Aschenbrenner
An essay series on superintelligence, the infrastructure behind it and the geopolitical stakes.
Read Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead
A question to take into each read
What has to be true for this argument to hold, and what evidence would change your mind?
These pieces were published in 2024 and 2025. Read their forecasts in that context. Situational Awareness is a series of essays, so allow extra time for the third read.
All three are freely available from their original publishers. This collection links to their work; the writing and ideas belong to the credited authors.
Curated by Alex Sidhu, Whitehorse AI.